Assessing the performance of the coupled SCHISM-WWM model in total water level forecasting along the Thanh Hoa - Nghe An coast in 2025

Tóm tắt

The open-source SCHISM model, with its advantages of a high-performance numerical solver and unstructured-grid framework, provides an effective tool for simulating complex hydrodynamic processes in estuarine and coastal areas. In 2025, SCHISM was applied for the first time in Viet Nam to experimentally forecast total water levels along the coast. This study evaluates the results of 24 independent forecast cycles during two strong typhoons, Kajiki (August 2025) and Bualoi (September 2025), using observed water-level data from Hon Dau, Sam Son, Hon Ngu, Quang Chau, and Cua Hoi stations. The results show that the model achieved relatively good forecasting performance, with Skill values ranging from 0.72 to 0.97. Most forecasts satisfy the QCVN 84 quality requirements, with total-water-level errors below 20%; the exception is the 30-hour lead-time forecast during Typhoon Kajiki (August 2025), for which errors at Hon Ngu and Cua Hoi exceed 40%. The study also indicates that total-water-level forecast performance along the Thanh Hoa-Nghe An coast is strongly affected by variations in forecast meteorological forcing. The spatial distribution of maximum total water level in the coastal zone is closely related to storm structure, particularly the distribution of strong winds within the typhoon.